Models, predictive or otherwise

Well it has been quite fun bashing those who scale scientific peaks that are all but inaccessible to The Great Unwashed. We've all met Senior Pharma Fellow and experienced the shock and awe that one so ordinary and talentless could rise so far, so quickly. Clearly Newtonian physics does not apply to the career trajectories of these individuals. However it is time to let go of this entertaining topic because we have more pressing matters to discuss.

In the next series of posts we'll take a look at some of the methodology used to build predictive models. What sort of predictive models are we talking about? If you've worked in medicinal chemistry, you'll have encountered these models. You draw in a chemical structure and the model comes back with a predicted solubility or free fraction in plasma. In some more draconian regimes, you'll not be allowed to synthesise the compound because the solubility is predicted to be unacceptable. It gets like the science fiction movie in which people build robots and then become enslaved by them. Except this isn't a movie, it's the Pharmaceutical Industry of the late noughties and many of us are in it.

Are the models any good? Depends who you ask and when. Some years ago I remember someone at work making the case for some tree-based pattern recognition software by noting that this methodology is used in the financial services industry to identify invididuals and organisations that it would be risky to lend to.

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